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		<title>Israel&#8217;s near-term economic outlook shows resilience amid market volatility</title>
		<link>https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/israels-near-term-economic-outlook-shows-resilience-amid-market-volatility/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ihor Pletenets]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Jun 2023 12:41:45 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/?p=11730</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The prominent credit rating agency Fitch Ratings released recently an overview of Israel's economic outlook for investors indicating a potential upgrade of the country’s credit rating from its current A+ status. According to the report, the near-term outlook is displaying promising signs of improvement, despite recent market volatility and ongoing ... </p>
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<p>The post <a href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/israels-near-term-economic-outlook-shows-resilience-amid-market-volatility/">Israel&#8217;s near-term economic outlook shows resilience amid market volatility</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com">Wise Money Israel</a>.</p>
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<p>The prominent credit rating agency Fitch Ratings released recently an overview of Israel's economic outlook for investors indicating a potential upgrade of the country’s credit rating from its current A+ status.<br />
According to the report, the near-term outlook is displaying promising signs of improvement, despite recent market volatility and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The credit agency suggests that Israel's return to budget deficits from previous surpluses will not hinder the further reduction of Israel’s general government Debt to GDP ratios. Before 2022, Israel had a relatively low ratio of 68.9% (U.S. has a staggering ratio of 129% - even higher than Cuba), but Israel budget surpluses in 2022 decreased the country’s debt ratio even further: to 61.6%. Fitch Ratings projected a further reduction in Israel’s Debt to GDP ratio to 57.9% by 2024, which could potentially lead to positive rating action, such as a rating more in-line with “AA’ peers’ ratios.</p>
<p>In fact, Fitch expects the deficits over the next three years to be narrower than those experienced prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Israel’s GDP grew in 2022 by 6.4%. Although weaker housing and stock markets are anticipated to contribute to a decline of approximately 2.3% in revenue in 2023, Israel's government Debt to GDP ratio is expected to continue its downward trajectory due to robust nominal GDP growth projected at an average of 6.9% over the next three years.</p>
<p>While Israel faces ongoing internal social and political tensions, the passage of Israel’s biannual government budget provides near-term political stability and government effectiveness. However, Fitch Ratings cautions that the advancement of certain policies favored by the governing coalition could exacerbate these strains and potentially influence the country's sovereign rating. In particular, judicial reform has been identified as having the potential to negatively impact Israel's credit profile, depending on its effects on governance indicators and policy outcomes.</p>
<p>As to Israel's capital markets, recent security related developments caused a disparity between economic reality and the capital market’s performance. After an increase of 6.6% between mid-April and mid-May while the coalition and opposition parties began discussing possible compromises, Israel’s stock market experienced a decline of 5.3%, signaling a return of fear among investors after a period of positive momentum. This volatility was primarily driven by security-related statements regarding the Iranian situation made by Army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi during a conference in Herzeliya last week.</p>
<p>However, not everyone sees the situation as gloomy as some media outlets are trying to portray. In fact, one of the leading Israeli banks, Discount Bank, has recommended to its clients to start gradually increasing exposure to the stocks listed on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. The bank cites a reasonably stable economy, relatively cheap pricing of equities, and the belief that some potential risk events, such as the approval of the budget, have already passed. Based on the bank's assessment, the Price/Earnings ratio of the large-cap TA-35 index is 22.1% below its historical median.</p>
<p><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-11731" src="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/גרף.png" alt="" width="554" height="249" srcset="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/גרף.png 554w, https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/גרף-300x135.png 300w, https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/גרף-100x45.png 100w" sizes="(max-width: 554px) 100vw, 554px" /><br />
Chart: Gap of Weighted Average of Expected Price/Earning vs. the Index’s Historical Median (globes.co.il)</p>
<p>In terms of the local macroeconomic situation, Discount Bank assesses it as reasonable and relatively good in certain parameters. Israel's GDP growth in the first quarter stood at 2.5%, surpassing market forecasts. Positive contributors to this growth include decreased imports, increased service exports, and higher consumption. While some segments may experience a slowdown, the overall data remains reasonably positive despite rising interest rates.</p>
<p>Therefore, the recent developments are giving us reasons to be optimistic. Based on the Israel's near-term economic outlook, there are clear signs of improvement despite market volatility and geopolitical tensions. The projected reduction in the government Debt to GDP ratio, stable governance indicators, and recommendations from financial institutions such as Discount Bank to increase exposure to the local stock market highlight the country's positive economic prospects. While challenges remain, Israel's reasonably stable economic situation and relatively cheap pricing in the stock market position Israel as an attractive investment opportunity.</p>
<p><em>Sources: Globes, Fitch Ratings</em></p>
<p><em>Photo: Credit to Gerd Altmann (geralt)</em></p>
<p>To invite a speaker click <strong>here</strong></p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/israels-near-term-economic-outlook-shows-resilience-amid-market-volatility/">Israel&#8217;s near-term economic outlook shows resilience amid market volatility</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com">Wise Money Israel</a>.</p>
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		<title>Protect yourself from rising inflation: unique opportunity to convert currency now</title>
		<link>https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/protect-yourself-from-rising-inflation-unique-opportunity-to-convert-currency-now/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Evan Liberman]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 May 2022 22:00:22 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/?p=11463</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>You may be watching the current financial situation with concern, due to growing inflation, tremendous money printing, and talk of the U.S. dollar (USD) potentially losing its world reserve currency status that it has had since 1944. Since January 2020, the U.S. has printed nearly 80% of all USD in ... </p>
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<p>The post <a href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/protect-yourself-from-rising-inflation-unique-opportunity-to-convert-currency-now/">Protect yourself from rising inflation: unique opportunity to convert currency now</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com">Wise Money Israel</a>.</p>
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<p>You may be watching the current financial situation with concern, due to growing inflation, tremendous money printing, and talk of the U.S. dollar (USD) potentially losing its world reserve currency status that it has had since 1944. Since January 2020, the U.S. has printed nearly 80% of all USD in existence.</p>
<p>It is now time to take proactive steps to protect yourself by considering transferring more USD (or other currency) to your Israeli shekel-based investment account. This move that will help diversify your investments from a currency perspective, and can hedge against the eroding value of the dollar.</p>
<p>As of the date of this article, given that the annual inflation <em>reported</em> is 8.5% in the United States, 7.8% in the European Union, 7.3% in Germany, 7% in the U.K. and 6.7% in Canada, Israel’s relatively low inflation rate of 3.5% (currently) as of is seen as a safe haven to slow the quick erosion of hard-earned gains.</p>
<p>But, due to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate increase to slow the acceleration of U.S. inflation, as of the date of this article, the USD has increased <strong>8.1%</strong> in the past 15 currency trading days against the Israeli shekel (NIS). This temporarily has slowed the long-term trend of a weakening USD, while the long-term trend of the dollar devaluation continues (the shekel’s value increased <strong>46%</strong> over the USD over the past 20 years - as of the date of this article).</p>
<p>This current situation presents you a unique opportunity to transfer USD (or your currency) and convert to NIS now while this erosion has slowed temporarily. These opportunities are rare and short-lived. As we watch the global markets, our firm advises to take action before the long-term trend resumes.</p>
<p>Please <a href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/contact/contact-us/">contact us</a> for information how to transfer your currency to an Israeli investment account now.</p>
<p>To invite a speaker click <a href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/request-a-speaker/"><strong>here</strong></a></p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/protect-yourself-from-rising-inflation-unique-opportunity-to-convert-currency-now/">Protect yourself from rising inflation: unique opportunity to convert currency now</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com">Wise Money Israel</a>.</p>
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		<title>Why We All Should Be Wary of Banks</title>
		<link>https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/why-we-all-should-be-wary-of-banks/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[WMI]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Oct 2013 09:58:48 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/?p=5135</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Once, your local bank was considered the bastion of security: the safest place to hold your assets. But things have changed. Here's an article we found particularly interesting on the topic, reprinted from The Franklin Prosperity Report in September, 2013 by Sean Hyman, the Senior Financial Editor of the Ultimate Wealth Report. I’ll ... </p>
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<p>The post <a href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/why-we-all-should-be-wary-of-banks/">Why We All Should Be Wary of Banks</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com">Wise Money Israel</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Once, your local bank was considered the bastion of security: the safest place to hold your assets. But things have changed.</p>
<p>Here's an article we found particularly interesting on the topic, reprinted from <a href="http://www.FranklinProsperityReport.com">The Franklin Prosperity Report</a> in September, 2013 by Sean Hyman, the Senior Financial Editor of the Ultimate Wealth Report.</p>
<p><span style="color: #000080;">I’ll admit I’ve probably never been a fan of banks, even though I have one that I use for my checking/debit and short-term savings.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000080;">Why do I not like them? When I was younger and needed money in the form of a loan, I couldn’t get it. These days, I own most everything outright and buy things with cash. So I’m able to circumvent the banks for the most part.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000080;">The funny thing is now that I hardly need them anymore, they come out of the woodwork to try to give me a loan.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000080;">I think many people have had this kind of disgust with a bank from time to time.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000080;">However, this year, banks have pulled some pretty wild stunts. To be fair, some of these stunts are imposed from their government or central bank. But here’s some of the “madness” that has happened in 2013.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000080;">The first one involved Cyprus’ government and banks overextending themselves and then needing a bailout. Who paid for it? Those with over 100,000 euros in their accounts had their assets frozen and 30 to 40 percent of their money was to be taken through a one-time tax (which I call legal robbery). It’s crazy. How can these people ever trust their banks again? Even those who didn’t lose any money this time around should think twice before putting more money in their banks.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000080;">Then there’s Russia. By 2015, Russian citizens won’t be able to pay cash for purchases that cost over 300,000 rubles (which equates to about $10,000). Of course, the excuse offered is that the government wants to bring a halt to the “shadow economy,” which dodges taxation. So they’re looking to bring more money into their treasury.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000080;">However, there are transaction fees to use with a debit or credit card, and there are 2 to 4 percent fees to transfer non-cash payments too. So once again, the citizens won’t have say over their own money. Their government will determine this through the banks.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000080;">Another instance of banks doing whatever the heck they decide to with your assets within the bank is this — Dutch bank ABN Amro has told its customers that they will no longer be able to take delivery of their gold that is held within the bank. So they can never get their physical gold back. They can simply choose to sell it and get the money for it.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000080;">Now how in the world is it right for them to be able to do this when you put your asset with them for “safe keeping?” It’s insane!</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000080;">But that’s in other countries. We don’t have anything to worry about here about our money in U.S. banks, right?</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000080;">Well, as of earlier this year, there was $25 billion in deposit insurance, which is supposed to preserve and protect our deposits. That sounds like a lot of money initially. But here’s the problem: There’s around $9.3 trillion in deposits that would need to be covered by a mere $25 billion. So there’s over 371 times more in deposits to be insured than there is in the deposit insurance fund.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000080;">Obviously, I know they don’t need to have anywhere near “dollar for dollar” held in reserves for what we have in deposits. But when the deposits are a whopping 371 times larger than the insurance, it does concern me if we were to have a huge round of major bank failures here in the United States. It happened in the last recession and it could be worse in the next recession.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000080;">What does this tell me? It tells me that even us Americans need to have a “Plan B” when it comes to our money.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000080;">What you decide is up to you. But you might need some money in a safe. You might want to hold some gold or silver coins in your possession somewhere (not at your bank). Additionally, you might want to hold some gold or silver somewhere offshore in a place that can be trusted, like the Perth Mint.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000080;">But whatever you decide to do, start thinking about what you need to do in order to protect yourself and your assets from not only a vicious government, but banks that overstep their bounds.</span></p>
<p>If you're looking for an alternative to the U.S. banking system, consider an Israeli <a title="Five easy steps to opening your Israeli brokerage account" href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/invest/personal-account/">investment account</a>, held in Israel Securities Authority-regulated brokerages in shekels.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/why-we-all-should-be-wary-of-banks/">Why We All Should Be Wary of Banks</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com">Wise Money Israel</a>.</p>
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		<title>Israel Solid Investment: Steinitz@Conference</title>
		<link>https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/israel-is-a-solid-investment-steinitz-tells-ny-business-conference/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[WMI]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Sep 2012 09:40:25 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>The “Innovate. Invest. Israel.” conference in New York, organized with The Wall Street Journal, discussed Israel's global impact as a leading exporter of technologies, ideas, innovations, and entrepreneurial spirit. Israel is a solid investment, despite the many challenges it faces, Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz told the “Innovate. Invest. Israel.” conference in ... </p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img decoding="async" class="size-large wp-image-9457 aligncenter" src="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Growth-1024x683.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="683" srcset="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Growth-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Growth-300x200.jpg 300w, https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Growth-768x512.jpg 768w, https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Growth-100x67.jpg 100w, https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Growth-858x572.jpg 858w, https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Growth-1200x800.jpg 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" />The “Innovate. Invest. Israel.” conference in New York, organized with <strong>The Wall Street Journal</strong>, discussed Israel's global impact as a leading exporter of technologies, ideas, innovations, and entrepreneurial spirit. Israel is a solid investment, despite the many challenges it faces, Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz told the “Innovate. Invest. Israel.” conference in New York this month.</p>
<p>The one-day conference, organized by the Israeli Finance Ministry, together with The Wall Street Journal, Barrons and the Public Diplomacy and Diaspora Affairs Ministry, hosted dozens of business leaders and economists from across the U.S. and Israel.</p>
<p>The conference brought together world economic decision makers, officials of firms invested in Israel, private equity owners and venture capitalists, as well as global financial institutes and chief analysts. Among the keynote speakers were News Corporation Chairman and CEO Rupert Murdoch, Citigroup Inc. Vice Chairman Lewis B. Kaden, Better Place founder Shai Agassi, and Nobel Prize laureate economist Daniel Kahneman.</p>
<h2>Why Is Israel a Good Investment?</h2>
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<p dir="ltr" align="left">Israel Finance Minister Professor<strong> Yuval Steinitz </strong>told the conference that <strong>Israel</strong> was known as a country that bounces back quickly after crises, and outlined the reasons it was a <strong>good investment</strong>: "First of all, we have the best <strong>human capital</strong> – Israelis always think outside the box, and therefore Israel is first in the world in start-ups per capita. <strong>Government incentives</strong> – corporate taxes for exports for firms in the Tel Aviv region are 12 percent and in the periphery they might be as low as 5%, which is the lowest tax rate in the modern world. The government constantly provides benefits to encourage exports. In addition, the Israeli economy keeps its<strong> macro-economic framework stable</strong>, which generates more investments in the country."</p>
<p dir="ltr" align="left">Steinitz said poverty still existed in Israel and the cost of living was high, “but I believe that most Israelis know better today than ever that the name of the game i<strong>s high growth and low unemployment</strong>."</p>
<p dir="ltr" align="left">Murdoch praised Israeli innovation, saying, "What differentiates Israel from other countries is the creativity. Israel is successful because it is one of several countries whose economy revolves around the human mind and it is really a<strong> light unto the nations</strong>. Bear in mind that everything that happens in Israel happens despite all the threats to the country."</p>
<p dir="ltr" align="left">In an interview with Reuters on Monday, Steinitz said that there was a chance that early elections would be called, though said he did not know for sure. "I think we will know with some certainty after Sukkot [which ends Oct. 7], he said. "We will finally know if the coalition is strong enough to deliver the 2013 budget."</p>
<p dir="ltr" align="left">Steinitz highlighted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's victory in July, when the cabinet approved, by a vote of 20-9, a package of tax hikes and spending cuts aimed at reining in the nation's budget deficit.</p>
<p dir="ltr" align="left">The government has been under pressure from Israel's central bank to maintain fiscal credibility at a time when the economy is slowing and tax revenues are falling short.</p>
<p dir="ltr" align="left">Officially, he said, the budget calls for 14 billion shekels worth of cuts to reach a deficit target of 3 percent of GDP. The figure could be smaller, perhaps 10 billion shekels, he said.</p>
<p dir="ltr" align="left">"We know that all our coalition partners are telling us that they would like to support the new budget, although it is difficult. But we want more than that," Steinitz said. "We want them to guarantee that they don't desert us in the middle of the process, that if they support the budget in the government that they support it through the Knesset."</p>
<h2 dir="ltr" align="left">Economic Growth</h2>
<p dir="ltr" align="left">Economic growth in 2013 is expected to hold steady compared with the current year, Steinitz said.</p>
<p dir="ltr" align="left">"The last [2013] forecast that was published was 3.7 percent. It will be updated. It will be below this, but I don't know if significantly below. It will be between this and 3 percent," he said.</p>
<p dir="ltr" align="left">Steinitz reiterated the 3.2 percent gross domestic product growth target for 2012.</p>
<p dir="ltr" align="left">He said the falling economic growth forecast was due primarily to three factors, the biggest of which was Europe's credit crisis and the negative impact on Israel's exports.</p>
<p dir="ltr" align="left">"Also the tension [with Iran] might be having an impact. The social unrest [the massive protests in the summer of 2011] in Israel did have some impact on the local business community, revenues of mainly local companies," he said.</p>
<p dir="ltr" align="left">When the austerity measures were approved, they drew heavy criticism from opposition leaders and even some government officials for attacking the middle class at a time when the public has protested against the high cost of living in Israel.</p>
<p dir="ltr" align="left"><em><span style="color: #888888;">Source: Israel HaYom newspaper<br />
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<p>The post <a href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/israel-is-a-solid-investment-steinitz-tells-ny-business-conference/">Israel Solid Investment: Steinitz@Conference</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com">Wise Money Israel</a>.</p>
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		<title>The Upcoming Dollar Crisis</title>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Apr 2011 08:49:34 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>The dramatic events of the global sub-prime crisis, credit crunch, ensuing tumble of home prices and the stock market in 2008/2009 have damaged many families’ financial situation, shaken their confidence, and caused much anxiety regarding their financial future. Our natural ability to adapt, however, makes us more inclined to “adjust” ... </p>
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<p>The post <a href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/the-upcoming-dollar-crisi/">The Upcoming Dollar Crisis</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com">Wise Money Israel</a>.</p>
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										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The dramatic events of the global sub-prime crisis, credit crunch, ensuing tumble of home prices and the stock market in 2008/2009 have damaged many families’ financial situation, shaken their confidence, and caused much anxiety regarding their financial future. Our natural ability to adapt, however, makes us more inclined to “adjust” to our new life circumstances, not realizing the bigger danger that is coming.</p>
<p>If you’ve never been exposed to the information you are about to read, consider this article a warning about your personal finances. By reading this information you are being given a window of opportunity to protect yourself and your family savings now. This can be done with relative ease. Though it may take a few minutes to read the full article, it could help secure your family finances.</p>
<h2>Currency Erosion</h2>
<p>With the stock market recovering and employment reports showing some positive signs, officials in the U.S. government - and more importantly leading American economists - are claiming that the U.S. economy is on a slow mend. They explain that market cycles are kicking in and that better times are inevitably ahead. However, over the past few years, the U.S. government has taken on trillions of dollars of debts incurred by the crisis and its aftershocks, provided expensive bailouts, and printed huge amounts of currency to fund the TARP and two Quantitative Easing programs so far. Because of these actions and its easy-money policy over the past three decades, the U.S. (the largest debtor in the world) is now in a precarious situation, as it goes further into debt, while simultaneously weakening its currency.</p>
<p>The consequences of inflation and the assumption of all this debt by the U.S. Treasury have not yet been fully felt by the American economy. When the inevitable results of such monetary policy hit, the savings of millions of people holding all of their assets in American dollars may be completely wiped out. It will happen because commodity prices (raw materials, metals, oil, and food) will rise dramatically, while the value of the dollars they are holding will greatly decline. This dynamic is already beginning to manifest. The majority of Americans are either not recognizing this phenomenon or don’t know what they can do to protect themselves.</p>
<p>Imagine if the U.S. government devalued the dollar by a double digit percentage in one day. Massive panic would breakout causing people to try and take drastic steps to save the value of their savings. By then, of course, it would be too late. But the devaluation is already underway. The U.S. dollar (U.S. Dollar Index) has lost an average of 11% against leading global currencies in the past two years because of the global implications of the U.S. sub-prime, debt-induced financial crisis. The Israeli Shekel in that same time has strengthened 18% against the dollar.</p>
<div id="attachment_4004" style="width: 582px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><a href="//www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Dollar-Shekel-exchange-rate-past-2-years1.png"><img decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-4004" class="size-full wp-image-4004 " title="Dollar-Shekel exchange rate past 2 years" src="//www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Dollar-Shekel-exchange-rate-past-2-years1.png" alt="" width="572" height="310" /></a><p id="caption-attachment-4004" class="wp-caption-text">The Israeli shekel strengthens 18% against the U.S. in the past two years</p></div>
<p>Even people holding their savings in seemly solid U.S. investments or accounts, which are in some cases tax-free or tax-deferred, are in fact losing (compared with the alternative), because the value of their money is eroding daily. This erosion is not temporary.</p>
<h2>Loss of Buying Power</h2>
<p>Several economic forces are posing a great threat to the American way of life and the value of U.S. currency. Consider what is happening in the world today. In the Middle East, Europe and other parts of the world, there is civil unrest, because of lack of employment and the rising commodity prices. In fact, in some Middle East countries this has already caused regime change. Commodity prices are rising all over the globe, and while in America prices of food, health care, clothing etc. have already gone up, the government continues to report low inflation rates (CPI - 2.11%, February 2011). The reality of anyone who shops regularly is that their buying power has already decreased, because wages and interest rates are not keeping up with the price increases.</p>
<div id="attachment_4011" style="width: 506px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="//www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/US-Dollar-Purchasing-Power.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-4011" class="size-full wp-image-4011 " title="US Dollar Purchasing Power" src="//www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/US-Dollar-Purchasing-Power.png" alt="" width="496" height="345" /></a><p id="caption-attachment-4011" class="wp-caption-text">Source: sharelynx.com</p></div>
<p>Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Economist for Charles Schwab, explained the paradox by commenting on the way the government has changed how it measures and reports on inflation: "Over the past 30 years, major changes have been made to the calculation of the Consumer Price Index (the government inflation measure) due to "re-selection and reclassification of areas, items and outlets, [and] to the development of new systems for data collection and processing," according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. <strong>If you eliminate those adjustments and calculate CPI as it would have been calculated in 1980, it [inflation] would be nearly 12 percent today...” </strong>(Charles Schwab Investing Insights, June 2008).</p>
<h2>Unmanageable Debt</h2>
<p>Quantitative Easing and America’s deficit spending are weakening the U.S. dollar in the global markets. And yet, the Federal Reserve is currently deciding on QE3<a href="//www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/qe3.jpg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-4006" title="qe3" src="//www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/qe3-300x199.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="199" /></a>, a third round of money printing, while the Treasury is requesting America’s debt ceiling (a limit set by law) be raised, so that they can go further into debt. As it stands today, America is finding it increasingly difficult to get foreign investors to lend money, via the purchase of its Treasury bonds. Some experts predict that by the end of 2011 America’s government borrowing will reach a point where they will no longer be able to even afford the interest payments on their loans.</p>
<p>As this becomes more clear to foreign investors in U.S. government debt, they will decide to sell (dump) their government bonds and dollar-denominated assets, causing the currency to tumble. This dynamic will also cause other countries to prefer payments (for trade and interest on debts) in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, causing the cost of America’s debt to dramatically increase.</p>
<p>This in turn, will drive the cost of dollar-denominated commodities up much higher and much faster, wiping out people’s dollar-based savings, as they try to weather the devastating economic conditions. Even today countries that have traditionally helped keep the dollar’s value propped up (Europe, Japan and China) are losing their appetite to keep sinking more of their money into U.S. debt.</p>
<h2>Drastic Measures</h2>
<p>The weakening of a county’s currency leads to inflation that can eventually shut down the economy, because producing or importing food and goods costs too much and people have too little to pay for it. In the past century, examples around the world (such as Britain, Yugoslavia, Ukraine, Brazil, etc.) show that when this occurs, governments take several, drastic measures to fight this crisis. They print more money, appropriate citizen funds (like nationalizing retirement programs), limit people’s access to their capital, and many times create a new currency, devaluing everyone’s money overnight.</p>
<p>The British pound, that had enjoyed being the world’s reserve currency for over 200 years, was devalued 14% overnight by its government in 1967. By 1975, their inflation rate for one year was 26.9%. Massive inflation causes people to refuse using their local currency, which further exacerbates the problem, as they lose even more money trading their worthless currency for a stronger one.</p>
<h2>The Risk to the U.S. Dollar</h2>
<p>Another key reason the dollar is still afloat and prices in the U.S. are relatively low is the U.S. government’s ability to legally print more dollars,<a href="//www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/dollar-printing.gif"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-4007" title="dollar-printing" src="//www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/dollar-printing-150x150.gif" alt="" width="150" height="150" /></a> because it is the current global trade (reserve) currency. It became the world’s reserve currency after World War II, based on the strength of its economy. What this means is that currently, foreign governments pay for goods, such as oil, in a foreign currency – U.S. dollars. These governments must ensure they don’t go too far into debt, producing more than they consume, in order to maintain the strength of their currency.</p>
<p>But the U.S. enjoys a special status, being the world’s reserve currency, and has not had to carefully watch its productivity and related spending. This is why, for example, the price of oil in the U.S. is much lower than its price around the world. America has not had to pay for its goods in a foreign currency - yet.</p>
<p>On April 4, 2011 the price of oil was $109 a barrel. Cotton prices are at record levels. Food prices are back at their 2008 highs. Typically, such commodity price increases would send Central Banks running to the U.S. dollar to secure the value of their savings, as these goods are traded between countries based on the U.S. dollar. But, in fact the opposite is happening. Central Banks are shedding U.S. dollars, reducing their holdings by about $9 billion in Q1, 2011 (according to Nomura Securities’ Jens Nordvig, Global Head of G10 FX Strategy).</p>
<p>China, Japan, Russia and Brazil have reportedly already met without the U.S. to discuss an alternative currency for oil dealings (reported by the British Independent). In past years, China’s holdings in the dollar, to pay for their growing oil needs, has been sharply increasing, as their economy develops.</p>
<p>But, starting in 2009 for the first time, and indeed since then, China (the largest single holder of U.S. debt) has been decreasing their holding in the dollar, turning instead to the Japanese yen, the Euro and their own currency. This decline is in line with their intentions to move away from the dollar, as the trading currency for global oil dealings. It has been reported that China has embarked upon a nine year plan to get out of the dollar. There have been further reports that China and Russia plan to trade between themselves using their own currencies and not the dollar. All of these developments continually bring down the global demand for the U.S. dollar.</p>
<h2>Moving Away From the Dollar</h2>
<p>As this happens, it will be harder and harder to “get rid” of U.S. currency. Mexico, that once allowed the U.S. dollar as an alternate currency at banks and places of business, now disallows usage and exchange of dollars at most business and banks. Reuters reports it is hard to exchange dollars in countries like India, China etc. Even in the United States local currencies have emerged, mostly in the Midwest; local stores are already accepting currencies other than the U.S. dollar. Regardless of the circumstances of each of these particular events, the reality is that there is more and more personal and global activity favoring other currencies over the dollar.</p>
<div id="attachment_4015" style="width: 598px" class="wp-caption alignleft"><a href="//www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/St.-Louis-Fed-Trade-Weighted-Exchange-Index-dollar1.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-4015" class="size-full wp-image-4015" title="St. Louis Fed Trade Weighted Exchange Index (dollar)" src="//www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/St.-Louis-Fed-Trade-Weighted-Exchange-Index-dollar1.png" alt="" width="588" height="353" /></a><p id="caption-attachment-4015" class="wp-caption-text">Trade Weighted US dollar Index (Broad index) is a measure of the value of the US dollar relative to other world currencies (here showing a 14% decline in the past two years). Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank</p></div>
<p>In October 2010, U.S. Secretary of Treasury Tim Geithner vowed that the U.S. would not devalue its currency. The mere fact that a Secretary of Treasury has to make such an announcement should be a red flag for anyone holding all of their money in dollars. Jim Rogers, a world leading investor and billionaire, warns that the U.S. dollar is facing the demise of its status as the world’s reserve currency. When this happens, the U.S. currency and buying power will decrease dramatically because there will be an abundance of dollars that everyone will be looking to unload. He predicts a decline in the dollar to historic "multi-multi decade new lows" as a long-term inevitability, and fears that the time frame for a collapse is sooner than previously thought.</p>
<h2>One World Currency</h2>
<p>Robert Zeollick, President of the <strong>World Bank</strong>, said that “the United States would be mistaken to take for granted the dollar’s place as the world’s predominant reserve currency”. There continues to be intense pressure primarily from Russia and China to introduce another currency as the reserve currency, because the effects of the recent American crisis were so far reaching globally, and world financial leaders do not want to see a repeat of this kind of effect.</p>
<p>Since the world’s economic leaders do not see a way for the U.S to recover, as it continues to go further into debt, they want to prevent their countries from dependence on the dollar. Countries want to minimize the effects of the declining U.S. economy on their own economies, as the U.S. sinks further into debt and towards high inflation. Ricardo Amaral, thought leader for Brazil’s economy, said, “the days of the U.S. dollar playing that special role that created an international monetary system that revolved around the U.S. dollar as its main currency has reached the end of the line, since today that system is very sick and it is dying a slow death.”</p>
<p><a href="//www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Bancor-flickr-byVlgllia-pretium-libertatis1.jpg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-4020" title="Bancor (photo by Vlgllia pretium libertatis@flickr)" src="//www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Bancor-flickr-byVlgllia-pretium-libertatis1.jpg" alt="" width="244" height="207" /></a>Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the intergovernmental organization overseeing the global financial system, is already calling for <strong>a global currency called the “Bancor”</strong> to be established for global trade, to be run by a global bank that would be set up in order to manage this currency and global trading in it. When the U.S. dollar stops being the world’s reserve currency, the demand for dollars will decrease instantly, and the interest on America’s loans will skyrocket.</p>
<h2>Questionable Safety in State Investments</h2>
<p>The state of the U.S. Treasury and its debt is highly concerning, but it is not only the Federal Government that is in trouble. Forty-six U.S. state governments face huge budget shortfalls for 2011. Because they cannot print money to cover their debt, and the massive federal aid has run out, they are resorting to other measures to pay their huge debt.</p>
<p>In Arizona the state is selling its government buildings (and renting instead). In California they are releasing 4% of prison population early, putting criminals back into society. In Georgia they are enacting “dead peasant” insurance policies, whereby upon a state employee’s death, life insurance payouts are paid to the state, not the individual. Many U.S. states are considering legalizing gambling to increase revenues. Many American’s seeking solid investment vehicles have much of their capital invested in municipal bonds, because of the tax exemption this type of bond typically offers. Given the financial state of federal and state government, state and municipal bonds can no longer be considered a safe haven. Of course, as explained above, U.S. Treasury bonds, and other dollar-denominated investments, should no longer be regarded blindly as “secure”.</p>
<p>America’s economy is in bad shape. Today, over 42 million Americans use food stamps, which is 17.5% higher than last year. That represents a staggering 14% of the population, up 58.5% from August 2007, before the recession began. The news website MSN claims 43% of American families still spend more than they earn. It’s not only families who are still living the culture of debt.</p>
<p>For example, “For Profit” education institutions are accepting large amounts of students who qualify for student grants and loans from the government, putting the burden of payment for all of these benefits on the U.S. taxpayer. Many experts consider unemployment rate calculations in American misleading, as they only report on those receiving benefits, but once their benefits run out, these unemployed are no longer reported as unemployed (though they haven’t found a job).</p>
<p>Also, the coveted highest AAA credit rating, once held by 61 American companies in 1979, has steadily declined to only four today. The U.S. government itself is in danger of losing its AAA credit rating as well. The most recent initiative discussed to deal in part with America’s debt is a new plan that will “encourage” by law Americans to use their 401K and IRA accounts to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds. By succumbing to the incentives offered by this plan, or by legally being forced to do this, Americans will be sinking their hard earned income into investments of undoubtedly questionable quality.</p>
<h2>What Can I Do?</h2>
<p>In light of all of these indicators, smart investors are taking action. Bill Gross, the highly respected manager of the word’s largest bond fund (PIMCO) advises Americans in 2011 to get exposure to currency other than the dollar. His fund recently purged all holdings of U.S. Treasuries. And he continues, stating that you should find countries that are under control financially, and invest in them.</p>
<p>It is essential that an American, or an investor in dollar-based assets, understands that by sitting by and doing nothing, you are in fact taking a financial haircut.<a href="//www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/dollar-scissors.jpg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignright size-full wp-image-3984" title="dollar-scissors" src="//www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/dollar-scissors.jpg" alt="" width="128" height="88" /></a> There is a big financial price to pay for continued U.S. deficit spending and it’s already takings its toll. The government has to make no radical moves at this point, and Americans are losing buying power daily while their dollars are eroding.The biggest damage year over year will be to those who hold all of their assets in dollars.</p>
<p>So, in order to protect your savings and your family’s standard of living, you need to strongly consider acting now while you are still in position to do so:</p>
<ol>
<li>Get at least some of your money out of the dollar and into another strong currency, where it will not erode (and even grow)</li>
<li>Get at least some of your savings out of the United States where it can not be appropriated or manipulated</li>
<li>Diversify your investment asset classes (different kinds of assets), so that you do not have all of your eggs in one basket</li>
</ol>
<h2>Safety in Israel</h2>
<p><a href="//www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/israel-flag-100x100.jpg"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignleft size-full wp-image-4023" title="israel flag-100x100" src="//www.wisemoneyisrael.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/israel-flag-100x100.jpg" alt="" width="100" height="100" /></a>Israel’s government has a much smaller deficit in percentage terms than most developed nations - in 2010, Israel's deficit was 4.8% of GDP, vs. 10.5%, 9.6%, 8.3% and 7.7% for the U.S., U.K., Germany and Japan respectively. In fact, Israel has had a Current Account surplus since 2003, which is now 3% of GDP.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-medium" src="https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/israel-current-account@2x.png?s=iscal&amp;v=202003091201V20191105" width="1460" height="680" /><br />
Its economy is strong and was less damaged by the global crisis, because of minimal exposure to the U.S. sub-prime mortgages and its conservative fiscal policy. The Israeli government has taken a conservative approach to managing inflation, real estate loans, economic growth and interest rates. Since the global crisis, Israel’s economy has grown faster than almost all developed nation, with recent GDP growth of 7.7% in Q4, 2010. Israel was one of the first nations to begin raising interest rates (current Bank of Israel base rate of 3.25% vs. U.S. rate of 0-0.25%), making it an attractive investment destination, especially for fixed-income investments (bonds).</p>
<p>The Israeli stock market has outperformed the U.S. market in the past five years by far: the Tel Aviv 25 index returned 62% vs. the S&amp;P 500’s 3% return during that time. Its low unemployment rate (6.1%) and high investment in hi-tech and R&amp;D make Israel a world-leading innovator. The strength of the economy has led to the strengthening of its currency against other world currencies. The Israeli shekel has gained over 22% against the dollar in the past two years.</p>
<p>Opening an <a title="How to open an Israeli investment account" href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/invest/personal-account/" target="_self" rel="noopener noreferrer">investment account in Israel</a> enables investors to move their funds into the Israeli market (and shekels) freely and immediately, now and in the future. You will be able to hold your money in a strong currency and enjoy the fruit of Israel’s strong economy. For more on Israel as an investment destination, read the Wise Money Israel series “<a title="Investing in Israel" href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/2010/10/28/should-i-consider-investing-in-israel/" target="_self" rel="noopener noreferrer">Should I Consider Investing in Israel?</a>”</p>
<h2>Conclusion</h2>
<p>We have just come through an upsetting global economic crisis, one that threatened the world’s financial future. We all want to believe that something like this won’t happen again, at least in the near term. But, the U.S. economy is not well. The root causes of the economic shortfalls the U.S. and indeed the global economy face are still unsolved. Unemployment and inflation reporting in the U.S. is artificially low, and the government continues to devalue its currency by printing more money and going further and further into debt. The U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency has allowed the U.S. government to sell foreign investors government debt cheaply, buy imports inexpensively, and create a relative high national standard of living without the real economic strength (productivity) to back that lifestyle.</p>
<p>As other nations begin to disengage from investments in the dollar and U.S. government debt, we’re likely to see another great collapse of the U.S. economy, erosion of your dollar’s buying power, and hyperinflation. International pressure is mounting to move away from the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency, which will flood the market and weaken it even more.</p>
<p>In times like these, diversification, including placing some of your capital outside of the U.S., is prudent. Israel is one such destination that could help you weather the coming storm.</p>
<p>Most of us shy away from change. Human nature loves the status quo: it’s just easier (and more comfortable) to leave things the way they are and hope for better times. We can learn a lesson from the Jewish people in Germany prior to the Holocaust. They saw the rise of the Nazi party, but convinced themselves the situation was not as bad as it truly was. Their denial of the current reality, desire to hang on to their German wealth and optimism that the future would improve blinded them. Many did not prepare an escape route for their money and their families in time and by the time most woke up, it was too late.</p>
<p>They imagined their current riches and position would carry them through and they passed up opportunities to save themselves while they could. The purpose of this article is to raise your awareness, so you can make changes to where and how your financial assets are allocated now. It is an opportunity not to be missed.</p>
<p><em>Sources: U.S. Department of Treasury, U.S. Department of Agriculture, The Wall Street Journal, Standard &amp; Poor's, CNBC, MSN, The World Bank</em><em>, Ricardo C. Amaral - Brazzil Magazin</em><em>e, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Stanberry &amp; Associates Investment Research, Foresight Group, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics, Charles Schwab Corporation, The Independent</em></p>
<p>The post <a href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com/the-upcoming-dollar-crisi/">The Upcoming Dollar Crisis</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.wisemoneyisrael.com">Wise Money Israel</a>.</p>
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